빙하 손실이 사회에 미치는 영향 (Science)

Science - 2025.05.29

 

 

It is no secret that melting glaciers are a signal of climate disruption. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, global ice loss is among the most certain indicators of warming conditions. Earth has now entered a new period in which glaciers are not simply retreating but are disappearing altogether. However, long-term glacier mass loss is largely unquantified owing to the lack of a comprehensive prediction model that accounts for all glaciers and constraints. On page 979 of this issue,

 

Zekollari et al. report the simulation of long-term glacier mass loss using eight glacier evolution models, which estimated that only 24% of glacier mass will remain under present climate policies . This finding underscores that shortand midterm glacier preservation efforts could affect changes in global glacier mass over many centuries. Zekollari et al. predicted the fate of glaciers based on 80 future climate scenarios and global temperature increases above preindustrial levels. The authors estimated the global glacier mass and corresponding global mean sea-level rise at equilibration—a steady state in which glacier mass and geometry become stable. The results showed that under the Paris Agreement (global mean temperature does not rise more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels), 53% of the present glacier mass could be preserved. Under existing climate policies, global mean temperature is on track to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels and 76% of global glacier mass is predicted to eventually disappear.

 

 

Science - 2025.05.29

 

 

Although these metrics of melting glaciers may look abstract, the consequences of glacial loss have a variety of effects on natural and social environments on a planetary level. Melting raises sea levels, and affect water resources downstream including their ecosystemic biodiversity. In addition, melting glaciers can compound other natural hazards such as increasing the formation of icebergs and accelerating permafrost erosion. They can also harm economic systems such as the tourism industry and damage cultural heritage. As impacts to the cryosphere accelerate, so, too, do social repercussions. For example, the world’s first funeral for a glacier was held in Iceland in 2019 for a little glacier called “Ok”, followed shortly thereafter by a memorial for Pizol Glacier in Switzerland and Ayoloco Glacier in Mexico. Since then, memorials for disappeared glaciers have increased across the world, illustrating the integral connection between loss in the natural world and human rituals of remembrance that are crucial for social cohesion.

 

The Global Glacier Casualty List, which is an online extension of these memorial acts, is a collaborative project between social scientists, glaciologists, and community members across six continents. This resource provides a global overview of melted glaciers as well as specific stories about them, featuring narratives and recollections that are important to the people who have lived near, worked with, and studied each of these now-vanished glaciers. Whether a glacier is critically endangered (predicted to expire by 2050) or has ceased to be a glacier altogether, each entry in the list is geotagged on an interactive globe, indicating how glaciers are fundamental to both social and environmental processes.

 

Glacier loss causes stress on food chains and water supplies. For example, meltwater from Glisan Glacier in Oregon has changed Mount Hood’s vibrant alpine ecosystem, putting surrounding orchards at risk. Ice loss from Glisan also threatens salmon and steelhead fisheries as well as the microbiomes created by springs throughout the region. The Quinault, one of eight Indigenous tribes living on Washington state’s Olympic Peninsula, rely on glacial meltwater to sustain salmon populations for food as well as for cultural and economic purposes. The loss of Anderson Glacier in the Olympic Mountains further endangers local biodiversity. For Careser Glacier in Italy and the many glaciers that occupy the Icelandic Highlands, decreased water availability for hydroelectricity production will be one outcome of glacial loss, affecting industries that rely on renewable energy. This could cause some industries to turn to fossil fuels for power, accelerating the greenhouse gas emissions that are contributing to the loss of glaciers.

 

Glaciers are also important sites for undertaking scientific training, especially for the next generation of glaciologists whose expertise will undoubtedly be of great importance in an unpredictable future for ice. For instance, Santa Isabel Glacier in Colombia, which is predicted to disappear by 2030, has long been a key training area for glaciologists and has the longest series of scientific measurements in the country. The snows of Kilimanjaro are among the most iconic in the world, and the glaciers atop the mountain form a key part of a United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage Site, which is also a source of tourism revenue. With less than 1 km 2 of glacial mass remaining, it is almost certain that Africa will be the first continent to entirely lose its glaciers because of global warming.

 

Beyond these impacts, glaciers are also repositories of cultural heritage and history. Yala Glacier in Nepal has been regarded as one of many sacred places for local people, but it is projected to vanish by 2040. In May of 2025, a memorial was held for this glacier, with Buddhist monks in attendance. Venezuela lost its last remaining glacier in 2024. In a legend well known to the Indigenous people of the Venezuelan Andes, the five glaciated peaks of the region were home to five giant white eagles who settled atop the highest mountains in the land, long before colonization took hold. Now, the eagles and the ice survive only in story.

 

The close-knit relationship between the natural and social worlds illustrates the importance of complementing physical science with social science to understand how ritual and memory can create communities of purpose around climate mitigation. Policy alone may not achieve all the changes in energy and resource use that are required to accelerate decarbonization. Mass mediation and mobilization, as well as collaborations across scientific disciplines, are needed.

 

This year, the United Nations is leading an initiative to draw attention to the world’s disappearing glaciers by calling for their protection. The year 2025 is the United Nations’ international year of glaciers’ preservation. As Zekollari et al. underscores, the effectiveness of present and near-term climate policies will play a decisive role in the future of glaciers. If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and global mean temperature is kept to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, many of the world’s glaciers can still be preserved. Consequently, glacier funerals will be fewer, and mournful stories of fallen glaciers can be reduced. In recognizing all that has been lost, focus now should turn to all that can be saved.